The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Friday, December 2, 2011

UBS: More evidence of some momentum in US growth in Q4

From UBS:

"The manufacturing ISM index rose to 52.7 (cons: 51.8, UBSe: 51.5) in Nov from 50.8 in Oct. Details of the survey showed gains in the production (+6.5 pts to 56.6), new orders (+4.3 pts to 56.7) and inventories (+1.6 pts to 48.3) components. The employment index, however, slipped slightly (51.8 after 53.5) but still indicates net headcount gains. The other component, suppler deliveries, also edged down.

The latest rise in the ISM index is part of a pattern of better-than-expected economic data during the quarter. Despite worries about what European economies might do to US exports, the export order index managed to rise in November, to 52.0 from 50.0. (The level is little different from the Q3 average but down from 56.8 in Q2.) In addition to exports, consumption is looking better, with real consumer spending on goods and services beginning the quarter (through Oct) up at a 2.7% pace in Q4 after 2.3% in Q3. The start of the holiday shopping season seems to suggest positive momentum carried into November.

Construction spending also rose more than expected: up 0.8% in Oct (cons 0.3%, UBSe 0.2%) after an unrevised 0.2% gain in Sept.
However, excluding the residential improvements category, which is both volatile and unreliable enough that it is excluded from GDP calculations, construction expenditures fell 0.1% in Oct after no change in Sept."