The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Saturday, December 3, 2011

Market pricing for Dec rate cut fallen from over 100% to around 75% today (chart)

This is based on intraday data for the 30 day SFE December 2011 interbank futures contract. The probability of a 25bps cut is about 75% now, with economists (see second chart) only currently 52% in favour...Depending on what, for example, key journos have to say immediately before Tuesday's meeting and/or any further Eurozone developments, these probabilities could fall further.


at 9:05 AM