The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Thursday, November 17, 2011

By this measure, I should win my bet with Stephen Koukoulas (chart)

Koukie and I have had a little wager, with Sky's Brooke Coote as witness, about the RBA's target cash rate in June 2012. Koukie reckons it will be 3.5% or less. I reckon there is a very low probability of that occurring. This is what the distribution of economists' forecasts for the RBA cash rate looks like out to end 2012. There is no Australian economist predicting a cash rate of 3.5% or less, aside from Koukie. On this basis, I will be okay! I know Koukie, you will start talking about those ever-reliable financial market expectations, which, for the record, I posted yesterday...