The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

IMF: Forecasting *trend* global growth for 2011 and 2012--not a "slump" (charts)

Despite all the hoopla associated with the IMF downgrading global GDP growth by just 0.3% this year, and 0.5% next year, it is still projecting trend-like growth of 4% per annum (see table below). And this assumes that the advanced economies only grow by 1.6% and 1.9% in 2011 and 2012. Emerging and developing economies, on the other hand, are expected to grow by 6.4% and 6.1% in 2011 and 2012. This highlights how the US and Europe are not nearly as important to the global GDP pulse as the media and markets portray. Critically, Australia is most exposed to the developing side of the global growth equation.