The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Monday, August 8, 2011

Why the US and Europe are actually not that important (charts)

Based on my calculations using IMF data, the G7 economies will only account for about 31% of global economic growth in the next year or two. That is, 70% of global growth is being generated outside of the G7. According to the IMF, around 60% of all global growth will be found in Developing and Emering Countries. In fact, Developing Asia will produce almost as much growth as the G7 alone. Australia's two biggest trading partners are China and India, which capture over one-third of all our exports. This is not going to change any time soon. Even when you look at simple IMF measures of the value of output (rather than the growth rates), around 50% of global GDP is found outside of the US and the European Union.