The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Wednesday, July 6, 2011

How well can Rismark forecast local-area house prices 18 months out?

Enclosed is some of Rismark’s out-of-sample forecast performance for a single ABS statistical sub-district (Inner Sydney). The growth rates on the y-axis are cumulative. All tests are out-of-sample, and over t+6, t+12, and t+18 month horizons.