The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Thursday, June 16, 2011

TDS: A two-speed RBA Board?

From TD Securities yesterday:

"In a lunchtime speech...the RBA Governor clearly chose to send another warning shot that market pricing of forthcoming RBA tightening remains insufficient to contain medium-term inflation. This is clearly on-message from the “surprise” hawkish 6 May Statement on Monetary Policy. The reason the Bank’s underlying inflation forecast popped above the crucial 3% upper target band by Dec 2013 was due to insufficient market pricing being fed into the inflation model...

This is a key message for the more dovish members of the RBA board who are focused on the “small size” of the mining sector compared with the struggling retailing, housing, tourism, manufacturing sectors...

Our two-speed RBA Board theme remains intact, where we are of the view that the RBA is driving the Board to sanction further tightening, but the more dovish members of the Board keep the overall communiqué a little more neutral-sounding."