The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Saturday, April 16, 2011

Less immigration = higher interest rates

I've written about this many times before. We're an immigrant nation, goddamit! Julia Gillard was born in Wales. So this is what RBS has to say, if you don't believe me:

"After surging in recent years, population growth has slowed sharply from a forty- year high of 2.2% to an annualised rate of 1.4% (at the peak, the population was increasing at an annual rate of almost ½mn, more than the annual increase in the UK population and half the increase in the Euro area population). This slowdown has mainly reflected a sharp reduction in migrants from a record level (there are fewer people moving here from the UK, China and India, although more Kiwis are arriving on our shores, adding to the ½mn already here), with more Australians now looking for work overseas. Slower population growth means a strong rise in employment going forward will be less than what the market has become used to, as a 20-25K monthly jobs gain will reduce the unemployment rate by 0.1pp assuming unchanged participation. Slower population growth should also place pressure on wages as migration has acted as a key safety valve for the labour market during the resources boom (eg, foreign-born workers have accounted for about two-thirds of the employment growth over the past year)."

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