The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Wednesday, March 2, 2011

Mitchell and McCrann saying the same thing. Which tells you...

Alan Mitchell (AFR) and Terry McCrann (News Ltd) have both written very similar articles today, reiterating themes I have been covering here for a while. Mitchell highlights all the brewing internal and external inflationary pressures, and emphasises the importance of inflation expectations given the positive price shocks. He then notes that "as long as consumers keep saving 10% of their income, the next increase in the official cash rate could be several months away." Note this does not seem to suggest Q4. 'Several months' does not sound too far away to me. And it implies that if consumers don't stay conservative, the RBA will be going much sooner. McCrann pushes largely the same line, concluding "At the slightest sign of consumer spending kicking up, the RBA will grab for the rate lever.  esterday's also coincident 0.4 per cent increase in retail sales might sensibly be seen as a precursor to such a possible kick-up, not yet the kick-up itself. That's why former R-Banker Paul Bloxham was right to cling to his rather forlorn prediction of the next rate rise coming in May or June."