The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Bloxham: focus on nominal GDP

HSBC's gun economist, Paul Bloxham, is always good value, although he (a) needs an RA, and (b) needs to punch out some fresh research. Today:

"Things we will be keeping a eye on in tomorrow's national accounts include the nominal GDP numbers - which we expect to be strong due to the rising terms of trade - growth in unit labour costs - as a precursor to inflationary pressures coming from the labour market - and the changing balance of growth between consumption and investment - which will be a key theme over the coming period. Household spending needs to be weak to make way for business investment strength. It is also worth keeping in mind that the Q4 GDP numbers will be affected by the floods. Disruption to coal production is a key reason why net exports are making no contribution to GDP growth in the quarter. Suffice to say, whatever number we get tomorrow probably under-estimates the pulse of growth in the economy."

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at 9:31 PM