Aussie data is starting to surprise on the upside in a material way despite the impacts of natural disasters. Economsts have all been upgrading their Q4 GDP forecasts, which were expected to be very weak. Today we had (after a big positive inventory suprise yesterday):
*"Retail sales rose slightly more than expected, up by 0.4% m/m in January (UBS & mkt: 0.3%), after edging up 0.2% m/m in December." (from UBS)
*"Real public demand was stronger than expected, rising by 0.8% q/q (UBS: -0.5%, mkt: nf) in Q4 (5.7% y/y, after 8.4% y/y), after a flat Q3 (was +0.9%). Public demand will contribute 0.2%pts q/q to Q4 GDP growth. Public investment surprisingly increased - despite the unwinding of the fiscal stimulus - up 0.2% (after -1.7%, albeit halving to 10.1% y/y), while public consumption rose a strong 1.1% (after 0.6%, slowing to 4.2% y/y)." (from UBS)
*"The manufacturing PMI rebounded by 4.4pts to 51.1 in February - the highest level since August 2010 - from a weak 46.7 last month, albeit still slightly below the average since 1992 of 51.5." (from UBS)
