The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Friday, February 11, 2011

How do house price and disposable income growth compare since 2003?

This analysis is a little different to our traditional dwelling price-to-income ratios. Rather than using median dwelling prices across all regions, we compare the monthly growth rates attributable to our hedonic dwelling value indices for both capital cities and the rest of state regions with the quarterly growth (interpolated to create a monthly series) in per household disposable incomes based on ABS National Accounts data. As you would expect, the purer hedonic results give an even more conservative picture of what has happened since the end of the last cycle in 2003, with incomes outpacing capital gains in the residential property market.