The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

HSBC tipping hike in November

HSBC's new star, Paul Bloxham, is tipping a hike in November:

"Looking forward, clearly the CPI numbers released next week (October 27) will be a watch point. At this stage we have in mind that inflation will be a solid number...At a component level, this is expected to be driven by solid growth in rents, utilities and property charges, and from a broader perspective, by solid growth in aggregate demand.

This makes a rate move in November highly probable. Of course, the CPI is not the only factor that is important in a rates decision. The Bank does not consider a particular inflation reading to be a so-called trigger point (or tipping point). Instead, it watches a range of indicators to determine policy moves. Still, the CPI carries a high weight in this decision process."