The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Wednesday, September 8, 2010

Big number tomorrow: unemployment (Reuters survey enclosed)

A critical data release tomorrow is the unemployment print. We are currently sitting at 5.3%. The Reuters survey, which I have enclosed below, expects the UE rate to fall to 5.2% with 29,000 new jobs. But six economists are forecasting an unchanged print at 5.3%, while Citi reckon it might tick up to 5.4%. There is one lone ranger on the strong side: Credit Suisse at 5.1%, which seems to be a function of a falling participation rate given they expect only 25,000 new jobs. The key here is that the minimum acceptable UE rate for the RBA is believed to be around 4.75% below which serious inflationary pressures start to emerge, as I have discussed before.