What has happened to Aussie house prices since 30 June 2012? (chart)

A friend kindly pointed out that I had said on 25 January 2012 that "If the RBA cuts again in February [they did not], and further thereafter [they started in May and June], as some analysts believe they will, expect to see the return of rapid house price appreciation." Here is what happened to national home values since the RBA started cutting rates in 2012...I am not sure if everyone agrees 6% pa house price growth, which is well above wages growth, is "rapid". It is certainly not slow, and much stronger than my through-the-cycle forecast of 4-5% pa...Read more here.

AFR article on ASIO and cyber-war now *free* online

This is an exception, but you can read my long feature story on David Irvine, ASIO, ASIS, DSD, Stuxnet, Flame, MiniFlame, Gauss, Duqu, the NSA and cyber-warfare over at the AFR for free now here.

All posts going to AFR blog now...

As per my comments below, all my posts are going to my AFR blog now. You can access it for free here.

RSS URL: http://www.afr.com/rss/blog/christopher_joye
RSS Feed Name: christopher_joye

This blog is going to sleep soon...

G'day, I will be migrating most of this blog over to my AFR blog, which is also free. You can subscribe to the AFR blog through the following RSS feed details:

RSS URL: http://www.afr.com/rss/blog/christopher_joye
RSS Feed Name: christopher_joye

Consumer confidence to revolutionise Australian super

I have some ideas on the future of super, and how to go about selecting fund managers. You can read them over at the AFR here.

Why a December rate cut is now likely

Actually, I flagged this weeks ago after the soft wages data. But you can read my AFR column on the RBA's December board meeting over at the AFR here.

The banks' love-affair with APRA

Yep, it was truly a love fest. The banks' gushing praise for APRA and John Laker was a little over the top---especially when they responded to questions about whether they had enough capital with the comment, "Ask John what he thinks." Laker was compelled to bat-back, "Oh no, I am now going to get queried about [industry] "capture"." Over to you, Adam Creighton... ;-)

(1) The price of bank safety and (2) Who will succeed RBA's Stevens and APRA's Laker?

I have two AFR stories--one print and one online--today. The first in print is called the "price of bank safety". You can read it here. It opens as follows:

Investors expect a trade-off between risk and return, but in Australian banking this relationship is inverted – banks with the lowest risks provide the highest returns. Taxpayer subsidies probably explain why.

The second is on the shock appointment of the Canadian central banking boss as Bank of England governor. You can read it here. I also discuss possible replacements for Glenn Stevens at the RBA and John Laker at APRA:

The two most obvious and apolitical successors to Stevens and Laker are, respectively, the RBA’s Dr Phillip Lowe and Dr Guy Debelle. Both have PhDs from MIT and are experts in monetary policy and financial stability. Dr Lowe is currently deputy governor and widely considered a natural replacement to Stevens. Dr Debelle runs the RBA’s financial markets division and led the central bank’s efforts to keep banks solvent during the global credit crisis.

Saturday AFR news exclusive and column links

In the Weekend AFR I have a page one, exclusive news story entitled, “RBA governor mulling retirement”. You can read it here. 

I also have my standard Saturday column, “Housing gain, retiree pain via cheap money”, covering the RBA’s December board meeting and what it means for housing, cash, floating-rate bonds, fixed-rate bonds, and equities. You can read my opinion piece here.

The AFR has massively boosted its content in the last year or so under the leadership of Brett Clegg and Michael Stutchbury. You can access the entire newspaper and the many magazines/lift-outs online or via an iPad for circa $1.90 a day here.

Fantastic column from The Oz's Adam Creighton on the banks

I love this column, which echoes my views on the subject (see here). Excerpt below...

IF the value of your total assets fell by 6 per cent would you be insolvent? If you are sensible, probably not. Big companies like Woolworths or BHP would have to endure a drop in their assets of at least 40 per cent before their assets were worth less than their liabilities.

Yet the four major banks would be. If National Australia Bank's total assets, for instance, fell in value by 6 per cent to $717 billion, its capital or shareholders' funds would be more than wiped out.

Shorten and Stevens throw "knuckle-balls" at banks, non-banks, and FX traders

Read all about the big news for banks, non-banks, and FX traders outside the AFR's pay-wall here. Amazingly, this was completely missed by the media aside from the AFR's reporters (and online media published since). My opening paragraph:

RBA governor Glenn Stevens and Financial Services Minister Bill Shorten have both thrown “knuckle-balls” into the evolving policy debates on how to prevent banks and non-banks from collapsing. Stevens also revealed he’s taken a directional punt on the Aussie dollar.

No surprise: Aussie growth expected to be "above trend"

From the usually very dovish Westpac:

The annualised growth rate of the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity three to nine months into the future, was 4.1% in September 2012, above its long term trend of 2.8%...This is the second consecutive month that growth in the Index has been above trend with August and September the only months since August last year that above trend growth rates have been recorded. Westpac is a little less optimistic than the Index at this stage with our expectation that growth in the second half of 2012 will be around 2.5%, slightly below trend.

AFR Column: Aussie dollar joins the big boys

Read my AFR column in reaction to the IMF news on the Aussie dollar today here (free).

What I said about Aussie dollar b/c global reserve currency in July 2011

Read it here.

Ironic: HSBC gets out of the non-core banking game

Hmmm, I have warned about this for too long to recall:

Banking Day: HSBC has confirmed it is in talks to sell its US$9.3 billion (A$9.0 billion) stake in China's Ping An Insurance, as it continues to shed non-core businesses and rebuild its profitability. In a statement to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange yesterday, HSBC said the talks might not result in a sale of the 15.6 per cent stake, however. On Monday, the Hong Kong Economic Journal reported that Dhanin Chearavanont, Thailand's richest man, might buy the shares.